Prayer #15: For the Predictive Models for the Spread of the Coronavirus
The predictions for the extent of the spread of the Coronavirus are based on models that have been widely applied in this country. Quite recently, however, these models have been questioned by some, and the models themselves have undergone major revisions, each one significantly lowering the number of expected deaths from the virus. One of the most widely-used models is that of the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). The IHME model, though, has revised its metrics multiple times and is coming under more increased scrutiny. The IHME model had recently predicted a "best-case scenario" of between 100,000 and 200,000 deaths in the U.S. by August from COVID-19. This past Sunday, the model downgraded this to approximately 82,000 deaths, and now, most recently, has reduced this to 60,000 deaths during this timeframe. These and other models have already social distancing and lockdowns built into them, so it appears to some that the models have been faulty predictors that have led to the extensive isolation measures taken which have wreaked so much havoc on the economy and disrupted so much of American life.
Pray today for those who are providing the state and the federal governments with predictions of the extent of the Coronavirus impact. Pray that these models would be examined carefully and that any major corrections that need to be made would be applied. Pray for more accurate understanding and predictions of the impact of COVID-19. So much in our nation and around the world depends on good, correct information.
2 Chr. 7:14 "If my people, who are called by my name, humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven and will forgive their sin and heal their land."